The Biden administration is running short on time to announce a new climate target aimed at lowering U.S. emissions.
The potential move by the White House to declare deeper cuts to American climate pollution over the next decade would collide with President-elect Donald Trump’s agenda to maximize U.S. fossil fuel production and his criticism of mainstream science related to rising temperatures.
Yet advocates are pushing Biden officials to submit the new goal to the United Nations ahead of the February deadline outlined by the Paris Agreement, saying it could be revived after Trump leaves office. The White House said last month that it would likely submit a new target.
Known as a nationally determined contribution, or NDC, the emissions-reduction target is required under the Paris Agreement, the global deal to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius in the postindustrial era. President Joe Biden pledged in 2021 to lower U.S. emissions 50-52 percent compared with 2005 levels by 2030. Trump is expected to withdraw from the Paris Agreement.
Green groups argue that if Biden announces a new target for 2035, it would set a marker of what’s possible for the world’s largest economy and encourage other nations to set their own strong targets.
“It would send an unfortunate signal internationally if the Biden administration doesn’t submit its target,” said David Waskow, director of international initiatives at the World Resources Institute.
“If the next administration decides to tear up the NDC, that’s on them,” he added. “But this administration shouldn’t preemptively dodge its responsibility.”
But the clock is ticking.
“A number of groups have engaged the White House to encourage them to make sure that whatever is put out can be defended based on what we know of the incoming administration, subnational ambition and ability to meet targets at the subnational level,” said Elizabeth Lien, program director for America Is All In, a coalition of cities, states, businesses and more that advocates for strong climate action.
It released a letter last week highlighting its members’ commitment to meeting a new target and asking others to join.
“The earlier they do it, the better,” said Rachel Cleetus, policy director for the climate and energy program at the Union of Concerned Scientists. The group issued a statement last week urging the White House to announce its NDC before the end of the year.
The White House declined to comment for this story. The Trump transition team did not address a question about how it would respond if Biden announced a new climate target, saying instead, “In his second term, President Trump will once again deliver clean air and water for American families while Making America Wealthy Again.”
A target in the making
Speculation has swirled over the past month about when — or if — the U.S. would announce a new target.
POLITICO’s E&E News reported last month during global climate talks in Azerbaijan that the U.S. was likely to make a new pledge before Biden leaves office Jan. 20. A White House official said at the time that advisers were analyzing “what the United States should do and what is possible with subnational action,” highlighting the work of state and city governments.
But the announcement didn’t happen at COP29 or at a meeting of the Group of 20 major economies. Several environmental nonprofits were pushing the White House to announce its target on Dec. 12, the ninth anniversary of the Paris Agreement. But that moment, too, has come and gone.
The emissions target set by Biden in 2021 aims to cut emissions 50-52 percent by 2030 and includes 24 pages of details about how it would be achieved, from slashing carbon pollution in transportation to agriculture.
Modeling done before the election by the University of Maryland’s Center for Global Sustainability shows that the U.S. could achieve cuts of 65-67 percent by 2035 through new and expanded policies at the federal, state and city levels. Studies by other modeling groups showed a similar range.
Those targets are less likely to be achieved if Trump delivers on his campaign pledges to drill for more oil and dismantle the Inflation Reduction Act and other signature climate measures finalized under the Biden administration, they said.
The U.S. could cut emissions 54-62 percent by 2035 based on strong nonfederal action, according to a policy brief released Monday by the Center for Global Sustainability. That range accounts for uncertainty at the federal level, with the lower end representing rollbacks to the IRA and federal regulations, such as EPA’s power plant rules. It assumes that states will strengthen their targets for clean energy and other climate policies with help from businesses and local governments.
“Enhanced actions from non-federal actors have the potential to counteract much of the impacts of federal inactions or rollbacks,” the analysis says, calling that effort “critical” for achieving U.S. climate targets.
Even with the IRA and other climate measures, the U.S. is still short of reaching its 2030 goal of cutting emissions 50-52 percent. A July analysis by the Rhodium Group found that the U.S. is on track to cut its climate pollution 32-43 percent by 2030. That would put it on a path to 38-56 percent reductions by 2035.
Then there are questions about how to account for uncertainties after 2028, when a more climate-minded government might enter office. The Center for Global Sustainability’s brief says emissions cuts of 62 percent could be achieved if existing policies are maintained and then enhanced after 2028.
“The United States is more than just any one administration, and this NDC is for 2035, beyond the term of the incoming administration,” said Cleetus from the Union of Concerned Scientists. “There are a lot of sub-national actors and businesses, states, cities, tribal nations that are willing to do the right thing in line with the science right now … and so this NDC is about that, it’s about what the country as a whole is able to deliver by 2035.”
Jean Su, energy justice director at the Center for Biological Diversity, said she thinks the delay in releasing the target is due to the White House’s effort to get it right.
“Even if it comes on Jan. 18, fine, just get it out there,” she said.
Some countries, such as Brazil and Canada, have already announced new targets — though green groups bashed Canada for setting its emissions cuts too low. Others, including China and the European Union, may not make the Feb. 10 deadline because of geopolitical uncertainty.
Any target that’s potentially issued by the Biden administration would face immediate political tests at home and abroad, said Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute.
“The Chinese side will pay very close attention to this NDC announcement [from the U.S.] if it happens,” he said. “At the same time, they’ll pay even stronger attention to what happens over the next four years.”
