Even if Republicans take control of both chambers of Congress next year, there’s only so much they can do without at least some Democratic support.
Advocates and energy policy analysts see the potential for bipartisan action on nuclear, geothermal, hydropower and offshore wind under divided government or tight GOP margins.
If Republicans take the House, their main focus will be a budget reconciliation package with a variety of tax provisions and possible oil and gas drilling mandates. The reconciliation process allows them to bypass the Senate filibuster.
“There’s going to be a lot of deal-making to make a reconciliation package happen, but that’s all [Republican staff] have been talking about,” said Heather Reams, president of Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions, a conservative clean energy group. “It’s the route with the most impact and the least resistance.”
But the use of budget reconciliation is limited and Republicans won’t have a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. And if Democrats keep the House, reconciliation is off the table.
Alan Ahn, deputy director for nuclear at Third Way, said nuclear could once again unite the parties. This year, both Republicans and Democrats came together to pass the ADVANCE Act, a landmark law to ease Nuclear Regulatory Commission oversight.
Ahn said lawmakers could work on legislation building on the ADVANCE Act. Such a bill would likely go further in cutting regulations for next-generation reactors.
Senate Environment and Public Works ranking member Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), one of the law’s authors, has already complained that the NRC is not going far enough in its implementation of the bipartisan package.
Specifically, she said NRC staff erred when they concluded the law does not require the agency to significantly transform its safety-first mission.
Federal backstop for nuclear?
Nuclear advocates have pushed lawmakers to craft new legislation that would create a new federal backstop for new nuclear projects. Such a proposal would entail Congress doling out more money, likely in the billions, to provide utilities leeway in covering over-budget costs on new large and small reactor projects.
The potential proposal has a good chance of winning support since nuclear energy is now widely popular in Congress, though Republicans might be hesitant to throw new money at the issue as they promise to cut federal spending.
As a result, funding for a federal backstop or new funding to generally aid the deployment of new reactors may be siphoned from energy programs that have been a priority during the Biden administration.
“I don’t expect a Republican-controlled Senate with a Republican administration to have much appetite for increases in spending,” Ahn said. “So, I think what we’re likely to see is a cannibalization of existing pots to meet these funding needs for nuclear.”
Additional regulatory streamlining and siphoning money from existing renewable programs for nuclear may be tough for Democrats to swallow. Still, advocates believe the rise in AI data centers and the resulting power demand could present a compelling case.
That stems from the need for consistent, baseload power to meet the extreme power supply data centers demand. Democrats and environmentalists fear data centers could turn to natural gas and other fossil fuels if zero-carbon energy sources aren’t available.
“A lot of these tech companies are turning to nuclear, so there’s a real desire to support nuclear and to build advanced reactors and small modular reactors, and kind of grow our nuclear fleet to meet this coming surge in demand for energy,” said Neil Chatterjee, who chaired the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission during Donald Trump’s first term.
“I think nuclear is an area that could draw bipartisan attention, because it is our single greatest source of carbon-free baseload power.”
Geothermal a new star?
Policy watchers are also turning their attention to bipartisan energy sources that may not be as red-hot as nuclear on Capitol Hill, but could be just as likely to get some attention in the next Congress.
Reams, the Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions president, said the geothermal industry is feeling particularly bullish, particularly due to the potential future chair of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee.
“I am talking to a lot with the geothermal community, they feel like they’ve got a lot of good momentum,” Reams said. “We have Mike Lee as a potential incoming chair. … Utah is a big geothermal state, so a lot can be done.”
Indeed, Lee, along with Sens. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.), James Risch (R-Idaho) and Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.), introduced the “Geothermal Energy Optimization (GEO) Act” to accelerate the adoption of geothermal energy nationwide in March.
The bill would specifically ensure geothermal projects on an equal footing with oil and gas projects on public land and direct the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and Forest Service to develop a streamlined process for geothermal observation well permits on public land.
That legislation is likely to become a bigger priority if Lee becomes chair. The Utah senator’s name has been floated for certain Cabinet-level positions in the upcoming Trump administration.
Hydropower, offshore wind
Hydropower boosters are bullish the upcoming Congress could finally produce big results for the energy source, which has recently failed to score legislative wins..
Advocates are mainly looking to overhaul the permitting system for hydropower projects, which are perhaps more affected by byzantine permitting regulations than other energy ventures.
That includes a relicensing backlog for existing dams — a critical process to maintain the approximately 6 percent of all electricity generation hydro provided in 2023.
Chatterjee said whether hydropower notches a long-sought win next Congress simply depends on whether there are enough lawmakers who prioritize it.
“It’s kind of one of these parochial issues to where, you know, individual members of Congress focus on it, because there’s hydro in their districts” said Chatterjee. “Hydro is not something that is particularly contentious, it’s just a matter of prioritizing it.”
Hydropower will lose a particularly powerful and dedicated lawmaker advocate when House Energy and Commerce Chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.) retires at the end of the year. Reps. Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.) and Bob Latta (R-Ohio) are vying for her gavel.
It’s unclear yet who could fill her pro-hydro shoes, but Rep. Kim Schrier (D-Wash.) has been one of the new advocates for the energy source. Sen. Lisa Murkowksi (R-Alaska) has been a longtime hydropower booster in the Senate.
And while offshore wind hasn’t been a particularly bipartisan topic on the Hill recently, Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) and Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) do have an effort to establish a revenue-sharing system for offshore wind energy.
The “Reinvesting in Shoreline Economics (RISEE) Act,” S. 373, would allow states to take back up to 50 percent of revenue created by offshore wind energy production along adjacent coastlines, which could then go toward funding coastal restoration efforts.
Watchers, however, say the effort is a tough sell to a broader base of Republicans in the next Congress, and may need to include more incentives for offshore oil development.
“I think the ‘RISEE Act’ is interesting, but does a deal need to be met with offshore wind and offshore drilling to make it more attractive?” said Reams.
