The ‘big one’ takes aim for Tampa after years of warnings

By Chelsea Harvey | 10/08/2024 06:20 AM EDT

A 2013 report from the World Bank placed the Tampa Bay area seventh on a list of the top 10 global cities facing the costliest damage from coastal floods.

Jay McCoy boards up a storefront in New Port Richey, Florida, on Monday in preparation for Hurricane Milton.

Jay McCoy boards up a storefront in New Port Richey, Florida, on Monday in preparation for Hurricane Milton. Mike Carlson/AP

As Hurricane Milton churns toward Tampa Bay, scientists say the swiftly intensifying storm could bring historic devastation to Florida’s second-largest metropolitan area.

It’s a nightmare scenario that has long haunted Florida officials.

For years, scientists and urban planners have warned that rising sea levels and worsening tropical cyclones have made storms a bigger threat to the coastal Tampa Bay area, which includes the cities of Tampa, Clearwater and St. Petersburg. And they have strongly suggested that the low-lying region invest in stronger adaptation efforts and more resilient infrastructure to protect itself.

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“We are all aware of the risk of the ‘big one’ — a catastrophic major hurricane making landfall,” said Brian Auld, chair of the regional business coalition Tampa Bay Partnership, in a foreword to a 2022 report making an economic case for greater climate adaptation and resilience efforts in the Tampa region.

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