House Republican leaders declared victory Tuesday, gathering on the front steps of the Capitol to celebrate unified GOP control of Washington next year.
Even though several races remained too close to call, particularly in California, forecasters are all but certain Republicans will retain their slim House majority.
It’s the verdict Republicans have been waiting for to cement their governing “trifecta.” Last week, the party decisively secured former President Donald Trump’s return to office and are poised to have a three-seat majority in the Senate.
“We’re going to raise an America First banner above this place,” declared House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) in a victory lap press conference Tuesday morning.
He noted he had participated in a total of 360 campaign events in 250 cities, where he found Americans unhappy with the direction Democrats were taking the country: “Voters rejected what they really felt was the misery of the last four years. We’re moving on, and we’re turning the page.”
Losing the House will be a blow to Democrats and environmental groups, who saw holding the chamber — even by one or two members — as critical for staving off GOP attacks on the Biden era’s climate initiatives, particularly the Inflation Reduction Act.
“It was not the result many of us wanted,” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said in a floor speech Tuesday afternoon, saying Democrats must “study” what led to the massive electoral losses for the party last week.
Armed with a mandate to lead, congressional Republicans will now in earnest begin drafting a budget reconciliation bill, which will allow them to pass tax and spending priorities through both chambers with simple majority votes.
Anticipating the possibility of controlling the House and Senate under a second Trump administration, congressional Republicans have been working for months to line up a policy wish list for such a bill.
Johnson said Tuesday morning that a reconciliation measure would be an effective way for Republicans to “quite literally … fix every metric of public policy” put in place under the last four years of the Biden administration.
The GOP’s reconciliation bill will focus on extending the expiring tax cuts put in place in 2017 during Trump’s last time in the Oval Office, while also including a host of other conservative priorities that could be paid for by repealing certain Inflation Reduction Act programs and rescinding unspent dollars.
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.), in a letter to colleagues last week, said Republicans planned to be “bold and creative” in their approach to reconciliation.
“There are Senate rules limiting what we can fit in budget reconciliation,” Scalise cautioned, while adding that since “Democrats expanded what traditionally is allowed in reconciliation … we intend to do the same.”
He said committees have been “plan[ning] and prepar[ing] for reconciliation” since the summer. Drafting legislative language and preparing cost estimates are already “underway,” and listening sessions for members will begin “soon.”
Yet the process will present something of a moment of reckoning for the party: A growing number of Republicans don’t want to gut the climate law’s clean energy tax credits that are creating jobs and contributing to manufacturing booms in their districts.
Eighteen House Republicans signed a letter in August to that effect, though three of them have lost reelection and more members could fall.
Lobbyists for businesses and industries have also been voicing concerns about the durability of certain Inflation Reduction Act clean energy tax credits, with Mike Sommers, CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, saying at a press call on Tuesday afternoon that his association would fight to retain incentives for carbon capture technology and hydrogen production.
“We’ll be working with the Congress and the White House on their ideas,” Sommers said.
It remains to be seen who else will step up to take on this cause in the coming weeks and months and what resistance they’ll get from Trump, who has called the Inflation Reduction Act a “con job,” and conservative hardliners.
A number of the most hard-fought races in the House were called in recent days. Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.), an outspoken centrist, held onto her seat despite a rematch against Republican Joe Kent that attracted national attention. Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) kept his seat despite Harris’ victory there.
Other Democratic victories included Laura Gillen over Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-N.Y.) and Josh Riley over Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-N.Y.). Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Calif.) conceded to Democrat George Whitesides.
On the Republican side, Rob Bresnahan beat Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Pa.) and Ryan Mackenzie beat Rep. Susan Wild (D-Pa.). Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-Colo.) conceded to Republican Gabe Evans.
Agenda details
Republicans have been preparing for a governing trifecta for nearly a year, Johnson told reporters Tuesday morning. He said he has remained in close contact with Trump, who is scheduled to meet with House Republicans on Capitol Hill on Wednesday.
The two men will head to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in West Palm Beach, Florida, to “iron out” details for the coming weeks.
Beyond that, Johnson declined to offer many specifics of a unified GOP agenda, saying Trump has been busy trying to fill out his Cabinet and appoint top staff.
“We’re delighted with the picks so far,” he enthused — but he did say Republicans were ready to hit the ground running in 2025, specifically in regards to reconciliation.
API, the oil and gas industry’s leading trade association, on Tuesday sent the Trump transition team a “roadmap” for energy policy, which included directives for the incoming administration to work with Congress to repeal the Biden administration’s methane fee and pass comprehensive legislation to overhaul the permitting process for energy projects.
That should include, said Sommers, easing requirements under the National Environmental Policy Act and making it harder to file litigation around new permits.
The permitting overhaul bill pending before Congress right now, sponsored by Sens. Joe Manchin (I-Vt.) and John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), has neither component, but API is endorsing passage during the lame-duck session with hopes of unified Republican government doing more in the new year.
Republicans in the House and Senate will also soon have to figure out how to contend with Trump’s campaign promises to slap across-the-board tariffs on all imported goods — with at least 10 to 20 percent levies, and 60 percent for Chinese goods.
The tariff plan is far from having unified support across the Republican Party. Trump can likely implement at least some of his goals by using existing laws, but Congress may step in to help shape them.
House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) has started discussions with Trump advisers about possible tariff provisions in a reconciliation bill, which could help pay for new or extended tax cuts, POLITICO reported.
Some congressional Republicans could also lean on Trump to support carbon tariffs on foreign imports, though the notion of tying climate action to trade policy remains a thorny one on the GOP side of the aisle.
There’s likely to be consensus on the other energy issues Scalise said the House would pursue in its first 100 days of the new Congress.
In his letter to colleagues, Scalise outlined a floor agenda that would involve passing bills to “unleash American energy by mandating lease sales, opening federal lands like [the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge] to increased energy exploration and production, and repealing harmful slush funds and policies Democrats jammed through in their so-called Inflation Reduction Act.”
He said Republicans would seek to use the Congressional Review Act to dismantle Biden administration energy regulations promulgated in the president’s waning days in power. CRA resolutions, like reconciliation bills, do not require senators to clear a 60-vote threshold for adoption.
Spending cuts likely
Republicans will also be able to craft appropriations bills largely on their own, and may try to carry out steep cuts to federal agencies or even eliminate some agencies.
Trump frequently criticized outgoing President Joe Biden on the campaign trail over the growth of the federal budget, which is now $6.8 trillion, and he has deputized Tesla CEO Elon Musk to implement a wide-ranging government efficiency plan.
Musk has set a target of cutting $2 trillion, an aggressive figure that’s higher than the $1.7 trillion in discretionary spending that’s subject to annual appropriations.
Congressional Republicans have joined in the criticisms and blamed big spending under Biden for the recent years of high inflation.
Trump tried to slash federal agency budgets during his last term in office. While he had some successes, Congress rebuffed many of his requests.
In his first budget proposal, for the 2018 fiscal year, Trump sought to cut EPA by $2.6 billion, or 31 percent. Congress instead boosted the agency’s budget to $8.8 billion, an 8 percent increase. He went on to try to cut the agency by at least 26 percent each year, targeting climate change programs, research and development, and clean water programs, among others.
He tried to make similar cuts at the Energy and Interior departments most years, targeting clean energy, electric vehicles and regulatory enforcement, among others, and was often rebuked by Congress.
But the Republican majorities may feel newly empowered this term. And Trump’s influence over the GOP has pushed out many lawmakers who opposed him previously.
Trump has also indicated he would seek to cut spending unilaterally, without Congress’ approval, under the argument that his inherent constitutional authority gives him the power to do so. He got in trouble for trying to avoid spending appropriated money — known as impoundment — in his last term in office, but is likely to try it again if lawmakers don’t make the cuts he wants.
Reporter Andres Picon contributed.
