Groundhog Day weather data reveals Punxsutawney Phil’s lackluster performance

By Daniel Cusick | 01/30/2025 04:04 PM EST

NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information compared real weather data to rodent prognostications.

Groundhog Club co-handler A.J. Dereume holds Punxsutawney Phil.

A Groundhog Club handler holds Punxsutawney Phil, the weather-prognosticating groundhog, during the 133rd celebration of Groundhog Day on Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, on Feb. 2, 2019. Gene J. Puskar/AP

Punxsutawney Phil may be the most well-known groundhog to forecast early spring, but he doesn’t have the best track record, according to a tongue-in-cheek analysis by NOAA.

In fact, Pennsylvania’s famous forecasting rodent ranks 18th on a list of peer groundhogs who make annual appearances every Feb. 2 — on Groundhog Day — to answer the pressing question, “Four more weeks of winter or early spring?”

Phil has been outperformed by living woodchucks from New York, Georgia, Illinois and Wisconsin.

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The top performer, with an 85 percent accuracy rating, is “Staten Island Chuck,” who lives at the Staten Island Zoo in New York City.

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