Europe’s Azerbaijan gas gambit is good news for Russia

By Gabriel Gavin | 11/22/2024 06:17 AM EST

Europe keeps striking deals with Azerbaijan, even at COP29. And while it might not be Russian gas, Moscow is still likely to benefit.

Azerbaijan's Deputy Minister of Energy and Chief Executive Officer of COP29 Elnur Soltanov speaks.

Elnur Soltanov, Azerbaijan’s deputy energy minister who is also the COP29 CEO, was caught on camera encouraging fossil fuel deals ahead of the climate summit. AFP via Getty Images

Western countries are looking to Azerbaijan to help end their reliance on Moscow’s fossil fuels, striking a string of natural gas agreements even during this year’s COP29 climate change talks.

That’s not the only irony, though: The deals could ultimately benefit Russia.

Since Moscow launched its all-out invasion of Ukraine, the European Union has been looking to resource-rich Azerbaijan to help replace the Russian energy it relied on for years. And Azerbaijan has been only too happy to help. In 2022, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen signed a memorandum of understanding with the South Caucasus country to expand gas exports.

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Then, as host of the COP29 summit, which runs through the end of this week, the authoritarian petrostate has unabashedly promoted its natural gas resources and flaunted new commercial arrangements with several European countries. President Ilham Aliyev even hosted a signing ceremony for one such deal on the conference sidelines.

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