Arctic could see its first ice-free day within 3 years

By Chelsea Harvey | 12/03/2024 06:12 AM EST

That’s the worst-case scenario. But humanity is likely to pass the grim milestone by midcentury unless much more is done to combat climate change.

A polar bear stands on the ice in the Franklin Strait of the Canadian Arctic.

A polar bear stands on the ice in the Franklin Strait of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago on July 22, 2017. David Goldman/AP

By the end of the decade, the Arctic Ocean could see its first ice-free day on record — even with modest levels of global warming.

It’s an unlikely scenario, but it’s possible. And it’s growing more plausible as humans continue pouring greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

Scientists raised the alarm in a study published Tuesday in the scientific journal Nature Communications.

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The research — which relies on climate models simulating trends in global temperatures and Arctic sea ice concentrations — warns the only way to avoid an ice-free day within the next few years is to cut emissions fast enough to stay consistent with the Paris Agreement’s most ambitious goal, capping global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius.

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